Beginning of this year, the world economy Peek into the high oil price shock not only the capital market and pushing up global inflationary pressures. People will ask: just recovery in the global economy, high oil prices will be the world's economy into the mire of stagflation?
oil prices since mid-January this year, North Africa and Middle East tensions by the impact of rapid increases in international oil prices was a tendency, especially in the important oil-producing countries in North Africa to upgrade Libya's civil conflict After the rally in oil prices exacerbated fears. According to the International Energy Agency released a report, Libya tensions leading to reduced output of 85 million barrels of crude oil. Most Libyan oil port shutdown due to staff shortages or closed. Italy's ENI and France's Total oil company and other 8 were due to busy with foreign oil companies evacuated and some or all of the stop, the eight companies accounted for 72% of Libyan crude oil production. The situation in the Middle East and North Africa
bring the risk of oil supply, coupled with the growth in global demand and other factors, the recent surge in international oil prices. Thursday (24), New York $ 103 a barrel oil price chart, the London market, oil prices up to $ 119.79 a barrel. Data show that the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude for April delivery futures prices this week to close at $ 97.88 a barrel, or up to 13.55% for the week. London, April Brent crude futures prices this week to close at $ 112.14 a barrel, or up to 9.38% for the week.
斯蒂芬舍尔克 U.S. energy market consultant, said the situation in North Africa and the Middle East, the oil market turmoil will lead to If the conflict continues, this premium effect will be enhanced. Market participants said there should pay close attention to the other major oil-producing countries of Algeria development of the situation. Algeria is the current daily output of 140 million barrels of crude oil.
Recently, the world's largest oil producer Saudi Arabia has announced increases of 8% to 900 million barrels of daily production, which make up part of the Libyan crude oil production disruption due to reduced supply. U.S. traditional energy analyst Jien Mai Gillian said that because Saudi Arabia said the increase, the market situation may evolve into civil war in Libya and then completely stop production of oil has eased concerns.
In addition, the International Energy Agency said the agency is about 16 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, can guarantee its members the supply of crude oil for 145 days. In addition, the OECD commercial crude oil inventories now fully meet the needs of 57.5 days, higher than the five-year average of 54.6 days.
spokesman for the International Monetary Fund, said in an interview, the current stability of the OPEC member's production capacity of more instability in the remaining members of the production. Therefore, rising oil prices is only short-term phenomenon, not last.
the risk of stagflation, analysts said high oil prices will increase the cost of business and consumer life, and lead to inflation and thus hinder the global economic recovery. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Research Office, Institute of Economic Research macroeconomic Yuan Gangming that oil prices will increase risks of global stagflation economy, once the costs have risen sharply raised global inflation, the world economy may new financial turbulence, the national macro-policy faces great challenges.
Deutsche Bank said oil prices break through 120 dollars per barrel will be a turning point in world economic growth. By then, the oil field's output accounted for the proportion of the global economy will rise above 5.5%.
being ridden debt and unemployment in developed economies, the cost pressures brought about by rising oil prices will dampen consumption and combat is not a solid economic recovery. Goldman Sachs economists predicted in a recent report that oil prices rose $ 10 each means U.S. economic growth fell 0.2 percentage points. Bank of America economist Ethan Harris believes that the current stock market slump reflects investor concerns about future economic growth.
Europe, Eurostat data showed the euro zone in January of this year inflation rate rose to 2.4%, well above the ECB's Financial Information Services Market in Europe recently released data show that in February the euro area business increased raw material and energy costs related to the speed record since the survey began 14 years ago, the highest on record. And economists warn that the oil price increase of 10 dollars, will lead to economic slowdown in the euro zone by 0.5 percentage points. In the sovereign debt crisis has not yet fully resolved the situation, oil prices will factor in the formulation of monetary policy, the European Central Bank faced a more difficult choice.
for rapid recovery from the financial crisis in emerging economies, rising oil and other commodity prices caused by imported inflation pressures for these economies to implement macro-control more difficult, and to bring economic growth to new risks. Market analysts have warned that most Asian economies will face higher food and energy prices also posed challenges. In response to rising inflationary pressures in some emerging economies have entered the interest rate channel.
for the impact of oil prices, the International Monetary Fund recently said that if oil prices remain at current levels, its impact on the world economy is If oil prices continue to rise, and its impact on the global economy would be obvious. However, the organization believes that the situation will not happen now.
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